Slide 51 of 61
Notes:
Figure A.6 Managing Expectations in the Lunar Landing Initiative
Let's illustrate the tool using Dr. Friedlander's own example. In 1961 President John F. Kennedy established a major project -- land a man on the moon and return him before the end of the decade. The figure above shows the realistic expectations of the project. Let's walk through the example. John Kennedy (and the public who elected him) is the system owner.
The system owner had both scope and quality expectations. The scope (or requirement) was to successfully land a man on the moon. The quality measure was to return the man (or men) safely. Because the public would expect no less from the new space program, this had to be made the first priority. In other words, we had to maximize safety and minimize risk as a first priority. Hence, we record the X in column 1, row 3.
At the time of the project's inception, the Soviet Union was ahead in the race to space. This was a matter of national pride; therefore, the second priority was to get the job done by the end of the decade. We call this the project constraint -- there is no need to rush the deadline, but we don't want to miss the deadline. Thus, we record the second ``X'' in column 2, row 2.
By default, the third priority had to be cost (estimated at $20 billion in 1961). By making cost the third priority, we are not stating that cost will not be controlled. We are merely stating that we may have to ``accept'' cost overruns in order to achieve the scope and quality requirement by the constrained deadline.
History records that we achieved the scope and quality requirement, and did so in 1969. The project actually cost well in excess of $30 billion, a 50 percent cost overrun. Did that make the project a failure? On the contrary, most people perceived the project a grand success. The government managed the public's expectations of the project in realizing that maximum safety and minimum risk, plus meeting the deadline (beating the Soviets!), was an acceptable tradeoff for the cost overrun! The government brilliantly managed public opinion. Systems development project managers can learn a valuable lesson from this balancing act.
